Cuomo and Mamdani Neck and Neck in NYC Mayoral Race as Sliwa Considers Exit

A recent poll indicates that the New York City mayoral race is tightening significantly, with candidates Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani closely contesting for the lead should Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa withdraw. Conducted by Gotham Polling in partnership with the city AARP, the survey shows that in a hypothetical scenario without Sliwa, Mamdani would secure approximately 44.6% of the vote, while Cuomo, running as an Independent, would garner around 40.7%. Notably, around 15% of voters over the age of 50 remain undecided, a demographic that could sway the election.

The poll results reflect a shift in voter sentiment, particularly among older constituents. In August, support for former Governor Cuomo among this demographic rose by nine points, suggesting his campaign is gaining traction. The landscape of the race shifted further when incumbent Mayor Eric Adams exited the contest in early October, after having run as an Independent. Prior to his departure, a September poll indicated that Mamdani held a substantial lead over both Cuomo and Adams, who received less than 10% of the vote.

As it stands, with all three candidates still in the race, Mamdani leads by double digits, according to reports from the New York Post. Key issues dominating the New York City mayoral race include the rising cost of living, housing affordability, and public safety.

Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling and Analytics, emphasized the potential impact of undecided older voters in his analysis. He stated, “The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”

Controversy has also surrounded Mamdani as he faced backlash on social media for posing with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, who has been identified as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing that tragically claimed six lives. In a recent post on the platform X, Mamdani referred to Wahhaj as “one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century.”

The poll was conducted from October 14-15, 2023, and included responses from 1,040 likely voters in New York City. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.

As the race progresses, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will shape voter preferences leading up to the election.