Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Thursday that Russia has deployed its latest nuclear-capable missile system, the Oreshnik, to Belarus. This move occurs as diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Ukraine intensify. The missiles reportedly entered combat duty on Wednesday, although no specifics were provided regarding the number of missiles or their locations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Oreshnik missile system would be operational this month, providing little additional detail during a meeting with military officials. He emphasized that Russia would seek to expand its control in Ukraine if its demands in peace negotiations are not met by Kyiv and its allies.
The Oreshnik, an intermediate-range ballistic missile system, can travel between 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,400 miles). It was first tested in November 2024, targeting a Ukrainian factory. Putin has claimed that the missile’s multiple warheads can strike at speeds of up to Mach 10, making them nearly impossible to intercept. Russian state media has highlighted the missile’s quick reach, stating it could strike a military base in Poland within 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in just 17 minutes.
This deployment adds to the existing military tension in the region. Russia had previously stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which served as a launching point for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022. Lukashenko has previously stated that Belarus hosts several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons, raising concerns about the potential for escalated conflict.
In December 2024, during a security pact signing with Lukashenko, Putin indicated that while Russia would control the Oreshnik missiles, Belarus would have a say in target selection. He warned that missiles targeting locations closer to Belarus could carry heavier payloads, increasing their threat level.
The revised Russian nuclear doctrine released in 2024 states that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be viewed as a joint attack, suggesting a lowered threshold for nuclear engagement. This doctrine also places Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, further solidifying their military alliance.
Lukashenko, who has been in power for over three decades, has faced repeated sanctions from Western nations due to human rights violations and his support for Russian military operations. Despite maintaining strong ties with Moscow, he has sought to improve relations with the United States. Recently, he released 123 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, as part of a deal that lifted U.S. sanctions against Belarusian industries.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya criticized the deployment of the Oreshnik missiles, claiming it deepens Belarus’s military and political dependence on Russia. She stated, “The deployment of Oreshnik turns Belarus into a target and militarizes the country, and we stand categorically against it. Putin is using Lukashenko as a tool for the Kremlin’s games.”
As the situation develops, the implications of the Oreshnik missile system’s deployment on regional security and international relations remain to be seen. The strategic calculations of both Russia and Belarus will play a crucial role in the ongoing conflict and diplomatic negotiations surrounding Ukraine.
