The Kansas City Chiefs, with a record of 6-7, are set as 5.5-point betting favorites against the 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers for their upcoming game on December 10, 2023. This decision has puzzled fans, especially considering the Chiefs have lost four of their last five games.
Johnny Avello, director of sports operations at DraftKings, provided insights into this betting line. He emphasized that despite their recent performance, “the Chiefs are still a very good team.” The team’s struggles have stemmed from a series of close losses characterized by penalties, dropped passes, and fourth-quarter defensive lapses. However, Avello maintains that these issues do not significantly alter the Chiefs’ power rating, which reflects their overall strength compared to other teams.
According to Avello, the Chiefs rank high in his assessments, with only a few teams likely to be favored over them on neutral ground, namely the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. Even with a challenging season, Avello’s power ratings still favor the Chiefs above any other team in the AFC.
He explained the methodology used in setting betting lines, starting with a team’s offensive and defensive productivity. Intangibles, coaching, and home-field advantage—worth 2.5 points at Arrowhead Stadium—are factored in later. Avello noted that despite their poor record, the Chiefs have maintained a strong presence in his calculations.
John Ewing, head of public relations at BetMGM, echoed Avello’s sentiments, stating that the Chiefs’ record does not fully reflect their capabilities. Ewing remarked, “They are better than their record indicates,” and anticipated that as long as the Chiefs are in playoff contention, they will remain favored in their remaining games.
For the Chiefs versus Chargers matchup, Avello set the initial spread at 5.5 points, which has remained unchanged. He compared both teams’ power ratings and made adjustments for home-field advantage, injuries, and coaching before finalizing the line. Current betting trends show that around 90 percent of spread bets and 80 percent of moneyline wagers at DraftKings are in favor of the Chiefs, potentially pushing the spread to six points.
Avello acknowledged the unpredictability of factors like turnovers that can dramatically influence game outcomes. However, he emphasized that the quality of a team tends to reveal itself over time, citing that the Chiefs’ 1-6 record in one-score games is indicative of their current challenges.
“Basically, it’s the magic’s not there,” Avello said. “The difference between having 10 wins and having six is so minute.”
Looking ahead, if the Chiefs can secure victories in their final four games, they would enter the playoffs without being considered underdogs in any matchup. Avello suggested that should the Chiefs make the postseason, they could be formidable opponents, regardless of whether they play on the road against teams like New England, Denver, or Buffalo.
“If they get in, they’ll be dangerous,” Avello stated. “Because who’s to say those three-point losses don’t turn into wins?”
Ultimately, while the Chiefs maintain a favorable betting line, they must convert their potential into wins on the field to fulfill their aspirations for the season. Avello concluded, “It’s good to have one of the higher power ratings, but you’ve got to win the games out on the field.”
