UPDATE: As the United States intensifies its relations with Pakistan, Field Marshal Asim Munir is consolidating his power, raising alarms about the future of democracy in the country. Just last Thursday, Pakistan’s Parliament enacted a sweeping constitutional amendment that grants Munir lifetime immunity from arrest and prosecution, further entrenching military dominance in the political landscape.
This urgent development comes as the U.S. increases its diplomatic engagement with Pakistan, marking a shift in its foreign policy amid growing tensions with India. Munir has made multiple visits to the White House in recent months, with his latest visit occurring in August, where he was invited to attend the retirement ceremony of General Michael E. Kurilla, the former Central Command chief.
The implications of this power shift are significant, as it coincides with an alarming resurgence of Pakistan-based terrorist groups. Reports indicate that following India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist bases in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Islamabad allegedly facilitated the recovery and relocation of groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed. Sources claim that these groups have received support to rebuild their operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, an area perceived as safer following Indian cross-border military actions.
On September 14, reports surfaced of a recruitment rally held by Jaish-e-Mohammed, where the group was given police protection. This alarming trend poses serious questions about Pakistan’s commitment to counterterrorism and its role as a U.S. ally. In light of these developments, many officials in Washington may be misjudging Munir’s regime as a reliable partner against terrorism.
The U.S. must also contend with the shifting dynamics in the region. Pakistan’s long-held strategic depth doctrine—designed to ensure influence over Afghanistan—has faltered. The Taliban, once seen as a reliable ally, are increasingly asserting their autonomy, raising concerns about Pakistan’s waning influence in the region. This was starkly illustrated on October 9, when Pakistani aircraft targeted alleged positions of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Kabul, coinciding with the Afghan foreign minister’s visit to India.
While Pakistan’s military consolidates power, its internal dynamics are fracturing. Rising Pashtun resistance against Punjabi political dominance threatens the country’s unity, and Balochistan’s ongoing independence movements add to the instability. The Taliban’s shift towards nationalism further diminishes Pakistan’s historical leverage over Pashtun communities, calling into question Islamabad’s ability to maintain control.
As the United States appears to prioritize strengthening ties with Pakistan, it risks overlooking the emerging geopolitical landscape. India, a rapidly growing democracy and technological power, is enhancing its influence across South Asia. With its robust economic and diplomatic initiatives, New Delhi is well-positioned to shape the region’s future.
The failure of Pakistan’s strategic policies and its retreat into authoritarianism have dire implications for its economic development and international standing. As the U.S. navigates these complex relationships, it must recalibrate its strategy to ensure long-term regional security and protect its interests.
With tensions mounting and the stakes higher than ever, the global community is urged to monitor these developments closely. The future of South Asia hangs in the balance as military power in Pakistan consolidates, potentially reshaping alliances and security dynamics across the region.
