UPDATE: As Black Friday approaches, U.S. retailers are poised to see if the holiday shopping season can thrive despite economic challenges. New reports confirm that consumer confidence has dipped this month, raising questions about spending habits amid persistent inflation and a recent federal government shutdown.
While the frenzy of early morning store openings and chaotic bargain-hunting is fading, Black Friday remains the most significant shopping day of the year. Retail experts report that shoppers are still eager to hit the stores, with foot traffic at locations like the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development officer. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
Recent data from Adobe Analytics reveals that consumers spent $79.7 billion online from November 1 to November 23, marking a 7.5% increase from last year. This uptick is a promising sign, even as concerns about the economy linger.
According to The Conference Board, consumers are becoming more discerning with their purchases. Chief economist Bill Adams noted, “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us.” However, shoppers are increasingly sensitive to prices, focusing on the best deals.
Retailers faced challenges earlier in the year, grappling with the volatility of tariffs imposed during the previous administration. Market research firm Circana indicates that 40% of general merchandise experienced price hikes of at least 5% compared to the beginning of 2023, with toys and baby products among the hardest hit. In fact, 83% of toys sold in September saw significant price increases.
Despite these hurdles, analysts remain optimistic about the upcoming shopping events. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 through December 24, although this is slightly lower than last year’s 4.1% growth.
During Thanksgiving, shoppers will find the best discounts on sporting goods, while Black Friday will be optimal for purchasing TVs, toys, and appliances. Cyber Monday is expected to offer the best apparel and computer deals, with discounts projected to reach 25%.
As consumers prepare for Black Friday, the holiday shopping landscape is evolving. The willingness to spend on significant occasions remains, creating a “halo effect” around the holidays, even in the face of economic uncertainty. With anticipation building, shoppers are encouraged to plan their purchases wisely to maximize savings this season.
Retail executives and analysts will be closely monitoring sales activity this week. As the countdown continues to Black Friday, it will be critical to see how consumer behavior shifts in response to the ongoing economic climate. Stay tuned for real-time updates on sales trends as they develop.
