UPDATE: The Big Island is grappling with significant drought conditions even as East Hawaii experiences some rainfall. Forecasters warn that the upcoming wet season may not deliver the much-needed relief, leaving many areas in critical need of water.
According to Tina Stall, hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, the current weak La Niña conditions are unlikely to enhance rainfall levels significantly. “While we are seeing weak La Niña conditions, they are forecast to remain on the weaker side,” Stall stated last week. This could spell trouble for the island as it faces ongoing drought challenges.
Rainfall data reveals that Hilo International Airport recorded 8.4 inches in October, which is only 80% of its average for the month. Alarmingly, during the five-month dry season from May through September, the airport reported just 17.92 inches, or 41% of typical rainfall. By the end of October, the airport had accumulated just 46.57 inches for the year, half of its usual 93.93 inches.
Stall notes that most of the island is currently under moderate drought conditions, with the exception of the Kona district. “They’re forecasting above-normal rainfall for the whole state, but those chances are a little bit smaller for the Big Island,” she added. Despite recent rain, the island’s drought status remains severe.
The 2025 dry season is already marked as the third-driest in the past three decades, falling behind only 2010 and 2007. The rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates a possibility of improved conditions, but the outlook is uncertain.
In recent weeks, intensified trade winds led to critical fire weather conditions, resulting in multiple Red Flag Warnings across the interior and leeward zones of the Big Island. Hawaii Fire Department Chief Kazuo Todd emphasized the heightened alert. “When you go into a Red Flag period, we staff up and have more people working,” he explained, indicating that resources are being stretched to combat wildfires.
Chief Todd also noted an ongoing fire in the Hamakua region, which has burned approximately 500 acres near Kaala Road. “We’ve been fighting that for about two months now,” he stated, highlighting that underground smoldering could reignite without proper monitoring. The fire season has already seen an uptick in activity due to arson, with reported incidents tripling compared to previous years.
Notably, the Kona and Kohala coastlines are faring better, with some areas reporting above-average rainfall during the summer months. However, October saw a drastic drop in precipitation levels, raising concerns about the sustainability of these improvements.
As the Big Island braces for what may be a disappointing wet season, the need for sustained rainfall is critical. “With them calling for above-normal rainfall, we can only hope that comes true,” Stall concluded, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.
Residents and officials alike are left with their fingers crossed as they await the outcome of the upcoming wet season, which is expected to conclude in April. The impacts of these weather patterns will be closely monitored as the island seeks relief from drought conditions.
For ongoing updates, stay tuned as we continue to follow this developing story.
