Bitcoin is closing the year with a decline of nearly 10%, leaving investors uncertain about its future. Expectations for 2025 included significant developments like spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased institutional interest. Despite this optimism, Bitcoin’s price has not reflected these predictions, leading to apprehension in the market. Yet, Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy and a prominent advocate for Bitcoin, suggests that the current market sentiment may be misinterpreting the situation. He argues that 2025 may not be a setback but rather a precursor to significant growth.
Strong Fundamentals Amidst Market Uncertainty
Speaking on a recent podcast hosted by Alex Thorn, Saylor emphasized that the last year has been crucial for Bitcoin’s fundamentals. He stated, “The last 12 months have probably been the best 12 months in the history of the industry in terms of fundamentals. It’s profound what’s happened since December.”
Saylor highlighted that while major players like BlackRock attract attention, approximately 85% of Bitcoin remains in the hands of early holders, whose identities are largely unknown. He noted that the dynamics of derivatives, particularly leveraged perpetual contracts, significantly influence short-term price fluctuations. According to Saylor, this can lead to Bitcoin’s price being swayed more by trader sentiment and leverage rather than actual spot demand, even during times of robust adoption.
Macroeconomic Influences on Bitcoin Pricing
Bitcoin’s recent performance appears more closely tied to broader macroeconomic conditions than to issues specific to the cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin has thrived when economic activity exceeds the critical 50 level of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). However, the global economy has been in contraction for nearly three years.
As analyst Nico noted, “Bitcoin is a liquidity thermometer. Easy money, it goes up. Tight money, it goes down.” This perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price stagnation reflects a tightening of liquidity rather than weakening fundamentals.
Adding to the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, Saylor provided insights into anticipated institutional participation in 2026. He mentioned that there are indications that major U.S. banks, including BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, may begin purchasing Bitcoin, offering custody services, and issuing credit tied to Bitcoin in the first half of the year. These developments follow discussions between MicroStrategy’s CEO and executives from various banks, who are exploring ways to manage Bitcoin for clients prior to launching loan or investment products.
Currently, MicroStrategy holds 671,268 BTC, valued at billions of dollars, positioning the company as a leader in public Bitcoin ownership. Collectively, public companies now possess over 1 million BTC, indicating a growing institutional interest and clearer regulatory frameworks.
Saylor anticipates that this wave of adoption could support Bitcoin prices in 2026, potentially ranging from $143,000 to $170,000.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current market structure poses challenges predominantly for short-term traders, who face heightened volatility due to leverage-driven price movements. In contrast, long-term holders and institutions typically adopt a more measured approach, prioritizing custody and compliance. If banks successfully introduce custody or lending services associated with Bitcoin, it could simplify access for everyday investors and attract those who have previously hesitated to enter the cryptocurrency market.
