Bitcoin Drops to $107,000 as Analysts Forecast Potential Recovery

Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, falling from a peak of $126,000 to $107,300 between October 6 and October 18, 2023. This represents a 15% drop amid heightened market volatility. The cryptocurrency faced intense selling pressure around October 16 and October 17, which pushed its price below $105,000 before a minor rebound. The resistance level at $110,000 has consistently hindered further drops this week, indicating bearish momentum and diminished buyer support.

Despite the downturn, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain relatively strong. Data from Glassnode indicates that over 90% of Bitcoin’s supply is still in profit, showcasing the asset’s resilience. Unlike previous turmoil, such as the collapses of FTX or Terra Luna, this decline appears to be a leverage-driven correction aimed at reducing excess positions in the market. Long-term investors continue to show confidence, even as a significant sell-off occurred, marked by Bitcoin’s taker sell volume surpassing $4 billion.

Bitcoin’s failure to maintain its price around the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $112,370 has created a critical resistance level. Historically, this price reflects the average cost for recent buyers, and persistent rejection below this threshold could accelerate losses toward the $100,000 mark. Market analysts emphasize that this level often influences traders’ decisions to hold or exit their positions.

Market Trends and Technical Indicators

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 34, its lowest level since April. This decline mirrors conditions that preceded Bitcoin’s recovery trend during the first half of 2025. The decrease in RSI suggests the market may be approaching a potential bottom, akin to the consolidation phase observed in April when Bitcoin began its upward ascent.

A key technical indicator to watch is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which Bitcoin has adhered to for nearly six months. Analysts note that the current price trend resembles the March-April consolidation period characterized by volatility followed by a gradual recovery. Should history repeat itself, Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks before a rebound occurs.

Traders are optimistic about a potential build-up during this stage, anticipating renewed momentum as selling pressure eases. This sentiment is supported by historical trends, where Bitcoin has typically established itself around the three-day 100 EMA. As the market stabilizes, many expect a shift towards a more favorable trading environment.

As Bitcoin continues to navigate through these challenges, market participants remain vigilant, closely monitoring key indicators and resistance levels that will dictate the cryptocurrency’s next moves.