A recent study estimates that the number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed, injured, or missing in the ongoing war could reach nearly 2 million by spring 2024. The analysis, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), reveals that Russia has sustained approximately 1.2 million casualties, significantly higher than Ukraine’s estimated 600,000.
The report highlights a grim toll for Russia, with nearly 325,000 soldiers reported dead since the conflict began in February 2022. This casualty figure starkly contrasts with Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s claims of an impending victory. According to Seth Jones, the lead author of the study, “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities since World War II.”
Casualty Projections and Historical Context
The current pace of the conflict suggests that Russia is experiencing an average of 35,000 casualties each month, projecting around 415,000 in total by 2025 alone. This rate far exceeds losses in previous major conflicts, with Russian casualties in Ukraine surpassing those during the 1980s offensive in Afghanistan by more than 17 times, and outnumbering deaths in both the First and Second Chechen Wars by a factor of 11. The toll of this conflict is more than five times greater than all Russian and Soviet wars combined since World War II.
The high casualty rates are attributed to several factors, including a lack of effective strategy, inadequate troop training, and low morale among soldiers. The study indicates that Russia’s approach involves a strategy of attrition, sending soldiers into battle to eventually overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. “President Putin appears willing to continue to shed Russian blood for Ukraine,” Jones commented. He suggested that the Kremlin’s economic struggles are unlikely to lead to negotiations on terms acceptable to Ukraine or European nations.
Impact on Military Strategy
The study also noted that many of the casualties are from regions such as the Far East and North Caucasus, which are less politically significant for Putin compared to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This demographic aspect may explain the Kremlin’s tolerance for high casualty rates.
Despite the heavy losses, Russian forces have managed to maintain troop levels through a combination of mobilization efforts, including the first drafts since World War II and the enlistment of convicted criminals and foreign fighters, notably 15,000 from North Korea.
The report emphasizes that Russian advances have been minimal, with troops gaining an average of only 15 to 70 meters per day in their most significant offensives—a pace slower than many historical campaigns, including the infamous Battle of the Somme during World War I.
While neither Russia nor Ukraine publicly discloses casualty figures, the CSIS estimates align with assessments from other experts in the United States and the United Kingdom. The findings underscore the severe human cost of the ongoing conflict and may influence future military and diplomatic strategies in the region.
