As the 2026 NFL Draft season approaches, players are trending toward increased targets in the upcoming Conference Championships. Utilizing advanced analytics from Pro Football Focus (PFF), a framework for understanding player performance has emerged, relying on machine learning and extensive route-level data. This approach aims to predict target distribution on plays, offering insights that go beyond traditional metrics.
Recent performances in the Divisional Round highlighted several players who exceeded expectations in terms of target share. Notable figures include Courtland Sutton, who recorded nine targets for a 22.5% target share, and Colby Parkinson, who had seven targets, translating to a 17.5% share. In contrast, Troy Franklin was sidelined due to injury, failing to secure any targets after just 13 snaps.
Looking ahead to the Conference Championships, several players demonstrated potential for increased involvement based on their performance in the Divisional Round. These players consistently found themselves open more often than they were targeted, suggesting an uptick in their target share is likely.
Impactful Performers in the Divisional Round
The predicted Expected Points Added (EPA) model, established earlier in the season, provides a lens through which to assess player contributions. This model indicates which receivers could have had the most significant impact on their teams, regardless of whether they were ultimately targeted. Leading this measure was Jayden Higgins of the Houston Texans, who generated 4.02 EPA, even though it represented only 27% of his potential EPA.
Sutton notably stepped up for the Denver Broncos during their matchup against the Buffalo Bills. His contributions were crucial in securing a victory, especially after Franklin’s early exit from the game. Without Sutton’s performance, the outcome could have significantly shifted in favor of the Bills.
Critical Missed Opportunities
Several instances during the Divisional Round highlighted missed opportunities for scoring that could have changed the momentum of games. In a high-stakes matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears, wide receiver Puka Nacua ran an impressive route, achieving a +1 play-level PFF grade. Despite being in a favorable position with 39 seconds left in the half, a pass intended for him resulted in a checkdown for a minimal gain.
On a separate occasion, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud missed a wide-open Higgins during a crucial third-down play. This moment, which had a predicted EPA of 1.40, resulted in a missed touchdown opportunity and ultimately led to the Texans settling for a field goal. Such decisions can have ripple effects throughout a game, impacting strategies and outcomes.
As the NFL playoffs progress, the insights gained from these analytics will continue to inform expectations for player performance. The enhanced understanding of target distributions and potential impacts could shape the strategies of teams heading into the Conference Championships. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if these players will capitalize on their increased opportunities.
