Tesla recently published its quarterly and year-end sales predictions, a move that has raised eyebrows in the financial community. This announcement included estimates from various analysts, such as those from Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and many others. Notably, Tesla also stated, “Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations, or conclusions made by the analysts,” a disclaimer that has led to speculation about the company’s outlook.
The projections indicate a significant downturn, with estimated deliveries for 2025 expected to reach 1,640,752 vehicles, marking an 8 percent decline from the previous year. The numbers for subsequent years suggest a gradual recovery, with forecasts of 1,750,243 units in 2026, 2,010,459 in 2027, 2,350,451 in 2028, and 3,019,900 by 2029. In terms of energy storage, estimates are projected at 45.9 GWh for this year, increasing to 141.8 GWh by 2029.
According to an article by Bloomberg, the consensus sales figures for Tesla are below the publication’s own estimates. Tesla anticipates 422,850 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter, while Bloomberg predicts a higher figure of 440,907. Analyst Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, remarked on social media that this unusual move suggests an effort by Tesla to distribute its investor relations-derived consensus widely, potentially indicating that Q4 deliveries may fall closer to 420,000 vehicles.
This projected decline marks Tesla’s second consecutive annual drop in vehicle sales. The average estimate for this year stands at 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8 percent from last year. The downward trend in sales has been attributed in part to the political behavior of CEO Elon Musk, which some analysts believe has adversely affected consumer sentiment.
A recent study from Yale University, authored by researchers including Kenneth Gillingham and Matthew Kotchen, examined the impact of Musk’s political activities on Tesla’s sales. The research found that without Musk’s political influence, Tesla sales in the U.S. between October 2022 and April 2025 could have been 67–83 percent higher, translating to an additional 1–1.26 million vehicles. Moreover, it noted that Musk’s actions inadvertently boosted sales of competing electric and hybrid vehicles by 17–22 percent.
The conclusions drawn in this study, which has not yet undergone peer review, highlight the significant influence a CEO’s political actions can have on sales. The authors noted, “This study highlights just how impactful a CEO’s partisan actions can be,” underscoring the potential ramifications of Musk’s behavior on Tesla’s market performance.
As Tesla grapples with declining sales figures, questions arise regarding the company’s future strategies. Unlike rival automaker BYD, which introduced at least nine new models in 2025, Tesla has not launched a new model in nearly five years and shows no clear intention to do so. Speculation about new factories in Mexico and India has also diminished, suggesting a shift in focus.
Musk appears to be prioritizing initiatives in robotaxi services, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence, possibly at the expense of Tesla’s core automotive business. This shift has sparked concern among investors and analysts alike about the company’s direction and future viability.
As the automotive landscape evolves, Tesla’s challenges may intensify unless the company adjusts its strategies and addresses the implications of its leadership’s public persona. The road ahead remains uncertain as stakeholders await further updates from the electric vehicle giant.
