As the year draws to a close, the corn market faces several pivotal questions that could shape its trajectory for 2025. Seasonal trends indicate that while the National Cash Index typically rallies during winter, December futures have shown limited activity. This raises concerns about market conditions, as fundamentals appear more bearish compared to last year. Investors and agricultural stakeholders alike are keen to understand the implications of these trends as they prepare for the upcoming trading period.
Market Dynamics: Seasonal Trends and Price Movements
Historically, the National Corn Index tends to increase by approximately 5% from the last weekly close of November through the end of February. In contrast, December futures usually remain stagnant during this period. Currently, the December 2026 futures contract was priced at $4.62 at the start of this week, compared to $4.6825 at the end of November. Looking ahead, December corn has a pattern of rallying during spring, followed by a summer dip and a modest recovery in fall. For now, it seems that December corn is maintaining a steady position between $4.60 and $4.70.
Global Corn Stocks and Supply Concerns
A recent inquiry into global corn stocks reveals that they are projected to reach a 13-year low. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates global ending stocks for the 2025-2026 marketing year at 279.15 million metric tons, down from previous figures. This decline indicates a tightening supply situation, which could have significant ramifications for pricing and availability.
Despite the bearish outlook, the National Corn Index closed last week at $4.0370, which is below the $4.3179 recorded at the end of December last year. Given that the US is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn, these figures suggest a more challenging supply-demand balance compared to the previous five and ten years. Nevertheless, recent data indicates the US is on track to export 4.5 billion bushels of corn during the 2025-2026 marketing year, a notable increase from 2.72 billion bushels in 2024-2025.
Investor Confidence and Market Predictions
Investor sentiment regarding corn remains cautiously optimistic. Based on long-term analysis, corn was identified as a viable investment at the close of August 2024 and 2025. Current positions include December 2026 futures contracts priced near $4.62 and investments in the Teucrium CORN ETF. This aligns with prevailing price patterns observed in the National Corn Index.
Concerns about supply sourcing have emerged, as indicated by the bullish spread between May 2026 and July 2026 corn futures, which currently covers a 28% commercial carry. This suggests potential challenges in meeting demand as the planting season approaches. Last year, a similar spread covered only 13%, highlighting a shift in market dynamics.
While the corn market faces uncertainties, the fundamental indicators suggest potential for a winter and spring rally. The interplay of supply and demand will ultimately dictate market behavior, and many stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments as they prepare for the new year.
